Gaussian clustering and jump-diffusion models of electricity prices: a deep learning analysis

Decisions in Economics and Finance - We propose a deep learning-based methodology to investigate the complex dynamics of electricity prices observed in power markets. The aims are: (a) to process...     

Weak signals: Ansoff today

This paper examines the concept of weak signals: its basic idea presented by Igor Ansoff and its later developments. We argue that recent futures studies have essentially deepened the analysis of this concept, which originally lacked an accurate definition. Placing weak signals in the general context of futures research has provided the concept with a theoretical point of attachment and linked it with other futures concepts – such as strong signals and trends. Recent studies have also increased the applicability of the concept of weak signals, specifying ways in which signals can be identified, collected and interpreted. Consequently, a number of empirical examples of the analysis of weak signals are nowadays available. In the present paper, we summarize and evaluate both theoretical contributions and managerial implications of these new approaches. While emphasizing the advancements of research, we also want to point out that Ansoff not only was a pioneer in the field, but developed many ideas that are still applicable today. We conclude our paper by suggesting directions for the further development of weak signals research.     

The impact of territorially concentrated FDI on local labor markets: Evidence from the Czech Republic

This paper investigates the impact of a large and territorially concentrated foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow on local labor market outcomes in the Czech Republic. A conditional difference-in-differences technique is employed for an estimation of the impact and block bootstrapping is used for computing consistent standard errors. The results indicate a positive and statistically as well as economically significant effect of a large investment project on the local unemployment outflow rate, which is driven mainly by increases in the aggregate unemployment exit hazard rates for unemployment durations smaller than nine months. Subsequent to the investment, the unemployment rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points and the employment rate increased by 3.7 percentage points in the host district. However, the impact on long-term unemployed was negligible as the exit hazard rates for durations longer than nine months remain unchanged. Moreover, a simple cost–benefit analysis suggests that investment incentives paid from a state budget would pay off only in a horizon of twelve years.     

International Enterprises and Trade Unions

A “shipping war” has broken out between two friendly neighbouring countries: Estonia (a rather poor land; liberated of Soviet occupation in 1991), and Finland (a wealthy one; independent since 1918). Led by their trade union the Finnish dockers boycott Estonian ships demanding for Estonian sailors the salary in the same range as that is in wealthy West-European countries. Estonian Sailors' Union finds that such a war is not for their better work-conditions but against their working possibilities: the cheap labour force is the only possibility for a poor country to entice foreign investments in it. No matter how the “shipping war” will be solved – the problem will remain. This is the problem of two opposites – cheap labour force of poor countries and expensive one of wealthy countries –, and international enterprises standing between them. Could such an enterprise survive without using the cheap labour force? And if it could, how could the poor countries survive then? Could there be found a clear unambiguous ethical solution? What ought to be the role of trade unions in such international business conflicts?     

Employees' choices in learning how to use information and communication technology systems at work: strategies and approaches

The purpose of this paper is to promote the understanding of how employees learn to use information and communication technology (ICT) systems at work. The elements of a learning activity in the context of ICT use are identified from the literature. In particular, approaches to learning, learning strategies and problem‐solving strategies are reviewed. The empirical part of the study examines how employees choose to start learning how to use ICT systems, and how they choose to learn while solving problems related to system use. The data were collected using qualitative semi‐structured interviews with 39 employees in three organizations. The interviewees usually preferred to learn how to use ICT quickly and without investing too much effort. The interviewees preferred informal learning and problem‐solving strategies. The most commonly used strategies were to try things out alone or together with peers, or to ask for help from peers. The main conclusions of the study are that the users' learning intentions affect the kind of learning support they need and that ICT learning is best approached as a learning activity strongly rooted in collaboration and the social context.     

On-line group decision support by preference programming in traffic planning

Preference programming is a decision support technique which allows decision makers to give preference statements of weight ratios in terms of intervals instead of single numbers in a value tree. Individual preferences, based on single number statements, can be combined into an interval model, and the negotiation proceeds by focusing on decreasing the width of the intervals. The preference programming approach was evaluated with a realistic traffic planning problem by using the HIPRE 3+ Group Link software. The results from nine test groups indicate that preference programming is an operational group decision support technique which initiates negotiations and efficiently directs the discussion towards issues which are relevant in reaching a consensus.     

Outsourcing and Offshoring: Implications for Productivity of Business Services

This paper reviews the implications of outsourcing and offshoringfor the productivity of business services in the UK. Officialstatistics indicate that business-service productivity has grownby over 20 per cent in the last 7 years at the same time asemployment grew by 20 per cent. The paper considers possiblefactors that account for the simultaneous growth of employmentand productivity. First, we discuss outsourcing and offshoring,and their role in enhancing productivity through greater specialization,standardization, and consolidation of business processes, anda shift to higher value-added services. Outsourcing of businessservices is interpreted as part of corporate restructuring,namely as the unbundling of corporate functions as well as verticaldisintegration. Second, as some services become more like products,both low-skilled and high-skilled jobs are subjected to productivitygrowth through standardization and digitization. It is argued,however, that the future of business-service productivity ison a knife-edge, depending on the mix of two sources of productivityenhancement—namely greater standardization and capturingvalue from customized solutions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: mari.sako{at}sbs.ox.ac.uk